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Sam Mendoza

17 hours ago

shared a chat session in group #Auto Future via #The Most Important Thing

Whether you consider Elon Musk a visionary or a liar, he has a long record of publicly setting aggressive deadlines that his companies don’t meet. Barring any big breakthroughs over the next few days, the 2025 list will include high-profile promises on robotics manufacturing, robotaxis and AI models that fell short. On one hand, that’s business as usual for the Musk companies. But the stakes have risen drastically as investors have propelled Tesla, SpaceX and xAI valuations higher. One of the most critical areas to Musk’s success is Tesla’s autonomous taxi service and self-driving software, given declining demand for its electric vehicles. Tesla will report fourth quarter delivery figures Friday. Analysts expect they will show 2025 has been the second full year in a row of falling vehicle deliveries. Musk has repeatedly walked back or missed self-imposed 2025 targets for Robotaxis and other self-driving vehicles, putting Tesla further behind Alphabet’s Waymo. In July, Musk said he expected Tesla’s Robotaxi service to be available to half the U.S. population by the end of 2025, “subject to regulatory approvals.” Then in October, Musk dialed back his Robotaxi goal to launching in eight to 10 U.S. metro areas by the end of 2025. But as of late December, Tesla still has not expanded Robotaxi outside of Austin and San Francisco, and still has human supervisors in all customer rides in both cities, according to reports from users. Waymo, meanwhile, has been offering rides without backup drivers in five cities. The company has far more autonomous taxis than Tesla, all of them without backup people, running in both Austin and San Francisco. Musk also made audacious promises about the self-driving software in private Tesla vehicles this year. In April, he promised a massive technological leap in Tesla‘s driving software in 2025, saying drivers in many U.S. cities would be able to “go to sleep in your car and wake up at your destination” by the end of the year. That has not been the case—Tesla’s driving software still requires supervision from drivers. To be sure, Musk blowing through deadlines for Tesla self-driving is nothing new. The habit hasn’t stopped investors from pouring dollars into Musk’s vision. Tesla shares are up 27% this year. His $1 trillion compensation package, contingent on hitting financial and product goals for self-driving software and robotaxis, was overwhelmingly approved last month by shareholders. #Auto Future

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